San Francisco’s budget: The case for a $2–3.6 billion correction
Part 7 of a 13-part series: When every question leads to the same answer
No single metric can perfectly define San Francisco’s budget problem. However, when every method of analysis points in the same direction, the conclusion becomes difficult to ignore.
We’ve looked at:
— Budget growth despite a shrinking resident population.
— The collapse of the daily commuter workforce.
— Excessive spending compared to structurally similar peer city-counties.
— Long-term structural deficit forecasts.
— The continued erosion of downtown commercial property tax revenue.
Each of these paints part of the picture. Together, they highlight an unavoidable conclusion: San Francisco is overspending — and by a lot.
While estimates of the exact figure may vary slightly depending on the method, the range is clear and consistent: San Francisco’s city/county budget is between $2 billion and $3.6 billion higher than it should be.
This isn’t about austerity for its own sake. It’s about aligning our spending with fiscal reality, ensuring sustainability, and rebuilding public trust in how our resources are managed. This isn’t about cutting core government services. Other cities are showing us today how to live within far more prudent spending levels.
This isn’t about austerity for its own sake. It’s about aligning our spending with fiscal reality, ensuring sustainability, and rebuilding public trust in how our resources are managed.
A correction of this magnitude won’t be easy — but maintaining the status quo is not an option.
We have a choice. We can react to this unpleasant reality by closing ranks among our small groups. Or we can stand tall together as proud San Franciscans. We can support our elected officials with our words and our actions as they strive to do right by us today and by future San Franciscans. And we can prevail together to emerge on the other side, with a solid foundation for the future of our San Francisco.
Sources: U.S. Census, California Department of Finance, SFGov.org, Association of Bay Area Governments, San Francisco Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News, San Francisco Examiner, San Francisco Standard. Full cites available on request.
Originally published on The Voice of San Francisco on May 15, 2025 by Marie Hurabiell