San Francisco’s budget: The bigger deficit picture
Part 5 of a 13-part series: More than a structural gap
Last week, we looked at the controller’s forecast showing San Francisco’s structural deficit growing to $1.5 billion by 2030, primarily driven by unchecked spending. But to fully understand the budget challenge ahead, we need to widen the lens.
The real deficit may be much larger.
A number of compounding risks threaten to deepen the city’s financial strain. For one, badge swipe data — a proxy for office attendance — continues to show persistently low return-to-office rates. This trend signals that commercial real estate values may remain depressed for the foreseeable future.
That has serious consequences.
Lower commercial property values mean lower property tax revenue and fewer real estate transfer taxes, both of which are vital sources of funding for city services. And that’s just one piece of the puzzle.
Taken together, these factors push San Francisco’s projected budget shortfall to an estimated $1.9 to $2.6 billion per year by 2030 if we stay on our current trajectory.
Add to that the ongoing budget crisis at the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), foregone federal Covid-era reimbursements, and the ever-present risk of a broader economic downturn, and the situation becomes even more precarious.
Taken together, these factors push San Francisco’s projected budget shortfall to an estimated $1.9 to $2.6 billion per year by 2030 — if we stay on our current trajectory.
And all of this is before the further risk of losing additional federal dollars.
This isn’t just a structural problem anymore. It’s a comprehensive fiscal imbalance that could severely limit the city’s ability to function, invest, and adapt — unless we change course in a serious way.
Sources: U.S. Census, California Department of Finance, SFGov.org, Association of Bay Area Governments, San Francisco Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News, San Francisco Examiner, San Francisco Standard. Full cites available on request.
Marie Hurabiell is the executive director of Connect SF, working to fix San Francisco and make civic engagement easier for residents. She is an eighth-generation San Franciscan, attorney, founding team of a health technology company, prior chair of Presidio Trust Board, Georgetown Board of Regents and Stop Crime Action.
Originally published on The Voice of San Francisco on May 13, 2025 by Marie Hurabiell